It is something we say a lot around here.
It's also what Scott Sambucci of Altos Research said in his recent webcast, The US Housing Market: It’s worse than you think. Don't let the title scare you. Even though his projections for the national market and some local markets may be less than rosy, there are some good insights to be had in his webinar. It's a good summary of where the national market might be headed, a good primer on interpreting market data, and good reminder that real estate is LOCAL.
National and even metro trends might be important when it comes to setting economic policy or playing Wall Street, but when it comes to buying or selling a home, it's what's happening in that NEIGHBORHOOD, on that STREET, and in that PRICE TIER that really matters.
Let's take Sacramento as an example. Here's the recent trend in median price for the Sacramento Metro area:
As you can see, prices have been fairly flat after a drop at the end of 2009. Let's get more local, drill-down and see what we find...
Below is a slide from Scott's webcast showing the Year-Over-Year price differential for three markets within the Sacramento Metro area:
The price trends are obviously very different depending on where you are within Sacramento. Look at the "story" for Davis (the orange line) compared to Rancho Cordova (the green line).
At the end of last year Davis was in positive territory, but since the end of last year Davis has seen a sharp decline in prices and at the beginning of July was looking at prices down 20% from the previous July.
On the other hand, Rancho Cordova, which was in negative territory throughout 2008 and 2009, has seen a trend of steady price increases, and was off only 8% from the previous July, its best performance in more than two years!
Very different markets with very different stories--stories that well-informed buyers and sellers must know.
Are you the trusted storyteller in your market? You should be.
